Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 12:12, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 506 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:09	MIA 17:16	23%	6%	0.7%	80%
AS 305 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:12	MIA 17:17	28%	7%	0.8%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953	3h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → MIA 13:37DL 793	10h 17m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	9h 36m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:12 → MSP 17:25DL 536	1h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	8h 23m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	8h 40m	93%	74%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	1h 50m Detroit	DTW 14:32 → MIA 17:35DL 2548	9h 05m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → MIA 18:23DL 719	9h 23m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:01 → ATL 17:03DL 560	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	9h 58m	97%	71%
American Details →	SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy	2h 56m Phoenix	PHX 12:14 → MIA 19:44AA 404	10h 28m	97%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SEA 08:45 → SFO 11:03UA 2831	1h 14m San Francisco	SFO 12:17 → MIA 21:07UA 1458	9h 22m	74%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON