Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 507 at 08:06, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 507 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:06	MKE 14:01	15%	3%	0.6%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151	9h 27m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	2h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09DL 2006	7h 04m	98%	89%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 14m Denver	DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:24UA 1836	6h 24m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40DL 1206	9h 40m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:01 → ATL 17:03DL 560	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 19:48 → MKE 20:54DL 2388	9h 53m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	2h 56m Detroit	DTW 20:00 → MKE 20:20DL 3724 · flown by SkyWest	8h 35m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	3h 08m Detroit	DTW 15:50 → MKE 16:02DL 1343	8h 32m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → MKE 21:43DL 2619	8h 34m	99%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy	47m Phoenix	PHX 10:05 → MKE 15:55AA 1646	7h 39m	69%	59%
United Details →	SEA 07:00 → ORD 13:15UA 2618	49m Chicago	ORD 14:04 → MKE 14:54UA 5668 · flown by SkyWest	5h 54m	71%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON