Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 2290 at 15:28, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 2290 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	SEA 15:28	MRY 17:50	22%	5%	1.2%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	2h 32m Denver	DEN 11:15 → MRY 13:10UA 5438 · flown by SkyWest	8h 10m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	SEA 07:40 → SAN 10:18AS 1367	2h 12m San Diego	SAN 12:30 → MRY 14:04AS 3346 · flown by SkyWest	6h 24m	96%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON