Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 943 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 943 SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 772 SEA 12:23 → MSP 17:29 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 943 Delta Flight history →	SEA 06:05	MSP 11:24	4%	2%	0.5%	96%
DL 953 Delta Flight history →	SEA 00:20	MSP 05:36	5%	2%	0.5%	91%
DL 536 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:12	MSP 17:25	13%	3%	0.4%	91%
DL 942 Delta Flight history →	SEA 14:30	MSP 19:54	13%	3%	0.4%	80%
AS 555 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:35	MSP 13:57	14%	3%	0.6%	86%
AS 772 Alaska	SEA 12:23	MSP 17:29	20%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON