Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching New Orleans on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 568 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:37	MSY 16:16	24%	4%	0.6%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	9h 11m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → MSY 13:47DL 2100	6h 17m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695	7h 20m	98%	87%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 07m Denver	DEN 09:50 → MSY 13:39UA 2273	6h 39m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146	7h 57m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:01 → ATL 17:03DL 560	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → MSY 20:28DL 1450	9h 27m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:20 → ATL 15:17DL 562	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MSY 18:24DL 678	9h 04m	94%	80%
United Details →	SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135	1h 17m Houston	IAH 14:48 → MSY 16:13UA 2738	7h 08m	93%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:17 → MSY 19:01AA 2291	6h 39m	53%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON