Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3495 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 3495 SEA 06:56 → OAK 09:04 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 533 SEA 11:01 → OAK 13:03 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3495 Southwest	SEA 06:56	OAK 09:04	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 735 Alaska	SEA 07:04	OAK 09:06	19%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 1328 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:41	OAK 18:42	30%	7%	0.7%	73%
AS 533 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:01	OAK 13:03	31%	5%	0.7%	92%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON