Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 405 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:18	OKC 13:57	16%	3%	0.6%	92%
AS 9421 Alaska	SEA 10:47	OKC 16:16	25%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020	9h 46m	100%	89%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 22m Denver	DEN 10:05 → OKC 13:01UA 5324 · flown by SkyWest	6h 01m	99%	86%
United Details →	SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135	3h 04m Houston	IAH 16:35 → OKC 18:15UA 6334 · flown by Mesa	9h 10m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862	8h 22m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:01 → ATL 17:03DL 560	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 19:05 → OKC 20:15DL 2784	9h 14m	97%	81%
American Details →	SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748	2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:19 → OKC 14:34AA 2929	7h 29m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953	3h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → OKC 11:16DL 5142 · flown by Endeavor	8h 56m	100%	74%
American Details →	SEA 07:26 → DFW 13:20AA 1667	3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:23 → OKC 17:38AA 2812	8h 12m	96%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:26 → OKC 18:41AA 2734	6h 19m	69%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON