Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 312 at 09:03, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 312 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:03	OMA 14:16	19%	3%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953	3h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → OMA 10:12DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	7h 52m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → OMA 12:56DL 4114 · flown by SkyWest	5h 26m	97%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:30 → OMA 16:51DL 3896 · flown by SkyWest	7h 36m	96%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:26 → OMA 12:45DL 1125	10h 19m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 19:45 → OMA 20:53DL 3715 · flown by SkyWest	9h 08m	100%	88%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 33m Denver	DEN 10:16 → OMA 13:04UA 1633	6h 04m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → OMA 17:48DL 2364	9h 48m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	3h 18m Detroit	DTW 16:00 → OMA 17:10DL 3889 · flown by SkyWest	9h 40m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON