Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1872 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 1872 SEA 06:10 → ORD 12:13 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 429 SEA 10:29 → ORD 16:44 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1872 American	SEA 06:10	ORD 12:13	8%	5%	1.0%	no record
AS 410 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 05:59	ORD 11:49	11%	3%	0.8%	72%
AA 2379 American	SEA 00:07	ORD 06:02	11%	6%	1.1%	no record
UA 2618 United Flight history →	SEA 07:00	ORD 13:15	12%	5%	0.6%	92%
AS 328 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 00:17	ORD 06:20	13%	3%	0.9%	83%
DL 2055 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:20	ORD 13:28	14%	6%	0.7%	85%
DL 2108 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:40	ORD 23:38	17%	6%	0.6%	76%
UA 1265 United	SEA 17:02	ORD 23:08	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 265 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:34	ORD 14:46	24%	7%	0.8%	77%
AA 1476 American	SEA 15:38	ORD 21:43	24%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 2835 United Flight history →	SEA 10:52	ORD 17:05	25%	9%	0.6%	72%
AA 3105 American	SEA 10:59	ORD 17:03	27%	10%	0.9%	no record
DL 637 Delta Flight history →	SEA 10:35	ORD 16:43	27%	7%	0.6%	72%
UA 2369 United	SEA 13:56	ORD 19:57	30%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 2966 American Flight history →	SEA 13:43	ORD 19:47	32%	12%	0.9%	47%
AS 429 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:29	ORD 16:44	33%	7%	0.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON