Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 3953 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 3953 SEA 07:30 → PDX 08:40 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 1700 SEA 13:33 → PDX 14:27 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3953 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 07:30	PDX 08:40	12%	4%	0.6%	94%
DL 3918 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 16:00	PDX 17:06	16%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 4062 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 13:37	PDX 14:48	17%	6%	0.6%	85%
DL 3802 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 10:35	PDX 11:41	18%	7%	0.6%	86%
AS 453 Alaska	SEA 07:14	PDX 08:08	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 3818 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 09:30	PDX 10:35	20%	6%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
OO 3145 SkyWest	SEA 10:15	PDX 11:19	21%	8%	0.6%	no record
AS 488 Alaska	SEA 12:34	PDX 13:28	26%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 441 Alaska	SEA 15:54	PDX 16:48	31%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 1700 Alaska	SEA 13:33	PDX 14:27	33%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 2432 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 06:42	PDX 07:37	2%	0%	1.9%	98%
AS 2377 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 23:26	PDX 00:22	14%	5%	4.5%	86%
AS 2387 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 20:25	PDX 21:22	17%	6%	0.0%	83%
AS 2372 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 19:22	PDX 20:17	18%	2%	0.0%	82%
AS 2302 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 17:59	PDX 18:56	25%	8%	0.0%	75%
AS 2181 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 12:05	PDX 13:06	40%	4%	0.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON