Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 18–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 986 SEA 08:31 → PHL 17:04 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2870 SEA 12:41 → PHL 20:57 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 986 American	SEA 08:31	PHL 17:04	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 442 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:28	PHL 16:43	25%	4%	0.7%	76%
AA 2870 American Flight history →	SEA 12:41	PHL 20:57	26%	6%	0.7%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44DL 2688	7h 24m	98%	91%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	52m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	7h 12m	90%	78%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	54m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022	7h 24m	82%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON