Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3792 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 3792 SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 746 SEA 16:44 → PHX 19:30 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3792 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 06:16	PHX 09:18	8%	3%	0.6%	96%
DL 2419 Delta Flight history →	SEA 08:25	PHX 11:20	12%	4%	0.6%	92%
WN 4307 Southwest	SEA 08:06	PHX 10:57	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 606 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:17	PHX 10:20	14%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2442 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:30	PHX 16:41	15%	6%	0.6%	82%
DL 2449 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:45	PHX 14:59	18%	6%	0.6%	79%
AA 4117 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SEA 11:27	PHX 14:37	19%	5%	0.6%	88%
AA 2208 American	SEA 15:01	PHX 17:57	21%	8%	0.6%	no record
AS 700 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:44	PHX 16:45	24%	5%	0.6%	81%
AS 449 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:49	PHX 12:36	26%	4%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
WN 3761 Southwest	SEA 11:11	PHX 14:02	27%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 744 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:48	PHX 17:34	28%	6%	0.6%	75%
AS 417 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:54	PHX 14:40	29%	5%	0.6%	78%
AS 746 Alaska	SEA 16:44	PHX 19:30	29%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON