Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 14:30, is the safest bet: 52% chance of reaching Pittsburgh on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 412 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:34	PIT 17:12	21%	4%	0.6%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953	1h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 07:29 → PIT 10:33DL 845	7h 13m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	9h 26m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188	8h 00m	99%	88%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 22m Denver	DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308	7h 16m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 16:57 → PIT 18:47DL 3122	9h 47m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 12:12 → MSP 17:25DL 536	2h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → PIT 22:52DL 1134	7h 40m	98%	85%
American Details →	SEA 07:10 → CLT 15:22AA 854	3h 59m Charlotte	CLT 19:21 → PIT 20:57AA 2676	10h 47m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 21:14 → PIT 23:00DL 2583	8h 01m	84%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON