Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 1494 at 10:05, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1494 Alaska	SEA 10:05	PSP 12:40	25%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	2h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest	6h 11m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:40 → PSP 16:33DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest	7h 03m	99%	92%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	2h 30m Denver	DEN 11:13 → PSP 12:31UA 687	7h 31m	99%	82%
American Details →	SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 10:38 → PSP 11:58AA 1884	5h 42m	95%	78%
United Details →	SEA 07:19 → SFO 09:50UA 499	2h 50m San Francisco	SFO 12:40 → PSP 14:20UA 342	7h 01m	98%	77%
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:35 → PSP 20:36AA 2709	10h 14m	96%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON