Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 4141 at 17:25 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 4141 SEA 17:25 → RDM 18:43 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 275 SEA 11:27 → RDM 12:30 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4141 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:25	RDM 18:43	15%	4%	0.9%	89%
OO 3063 SkyWest	SEA 08:10	RDM 09:24	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 3735 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 11:22	RDM 12:45	16%	5%	0.9%	90%
AS 275 Alaska	SEA 11:27	RDM 12:30	27%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 2094 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 22:53	RDM 23:59	13%	2%	0.0%	87%
AS 2079 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 07:55	RDM 09:04	15%	0%	0.0%	85%
AS 2400 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SEA 11:56	RDM 13:08	37%	4%	1.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON