Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:20, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 489 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:55	RDU 23:55	21%	5%	0.5%	77%
AS 572 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:20	RDU 16:31	23%	4%	0.6%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	9h 16m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → RDU 10:31DL 2783	7h 11m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 15:48 → RDU 17:22DL 2600	8h 22m	99%	87%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	1h 06m Denver	DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269	7h 16m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:09 → SLC 14:15DL 1265	3h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:52 → RDU 00:03 +1DL 402	9h 54m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699	8h 46m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	3h 20m Detroit	DTW 16:02 → RDU 17:47DL 1407	9h 17m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:01 → ATL 17:03DL 560	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518	8h 56m	97%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON