tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 598 Alaska Flight history → SEA 17:07 RNO 18:54 25% 6% 0.7% 75%
AS 273 Alaska Flight history → SEA 11:53 RNO 13:50 25% 5% 0.9% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 6h 39m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016 3h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 7h 22m 99% 90%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 12:05 → PDX 13:06AS 2181 · flown by Horizon 1h 55m Portland PDX 15:01 → RNO 16:30AS 2206 · flown by Horizon 4h 25m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 37m Denver DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167 7h 39m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SEA 07:15 → LAX 10:05DL 1628 2h 53m Los Angeles LAX 12:58 → RNO 14:25DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest 7h 10m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 3h 55m Los Angeles LAX 16:50 → RNO 18:21DL 4126 · flown by SkyWest 8h 16m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → SEA 08:56 → DEN 12:45UA 1505 3h 25m Denver DEN 16:10 → RNO 17:36UA 1604 8h 40m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy 1h 04m Phoenix PHX 10:22 → RNO 12:27AA 1437 6h 11m 92% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:19 → SFO 09:50UA 499 46m San Francisco SFO 10:36 → RNO 11:49UA 1845 4h 30m 62% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON