Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2508 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 2508 SEA 07:15 → SAN 10:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 697 SEA 10:09 → SAN 12:48 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2508 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	SAN 10:11	16%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 2613 Delta Flight history →	SEA 15:15	SAN 18:05	18%	6%	0.6%	84%
DL 2572 Delta Flight history →	SEA 12:14	SAN 15:16	19%	6%	0.6%	82%
WN 3763 Southwest	SEA 07:41	SAN 10:25	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 2533 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:45	SAN 12:39	23%	6%	0.7%	82%
AS 1367 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:40	SAN 10:19	30%	6%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
AS 765 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:17	SAN 16:57	30%	7%	0.8%	78%
AS 650 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:36	SAN 11:16	31%	6%	0.8%	81%worse than usual
AS 635 Alaska	SEA 16:58	SAN 19:37	32%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 621 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:32	SAN 14:12	32%	8%	0.8%	82%worse than usual
WN 3285 Southwest	SEA 17:11	SAN 19:54	36%	12%	0.6%	no record
AS 697 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:09	SAN 12:48	36%	8%	0.8%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON