Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 494 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:38	SAT 15:46	21%	5%	0.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953	3h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667	9h 29m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123	6h 06m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	11h 12m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580	9h 06m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	3h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:32 → SAT 17:25DL 2199	8h 10m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465	9h 11m	99%	85%
American Details →	SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy	3h 04m Phoenix	PHX 12:22 → SAT 16:44AA 570	8h 28m	97%	83%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	52m Denver	DEN 09:35 → SAT 12:43UA 2625	5h 43m	90%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:24 → SAT 18:37AA 3899 · flown by Envoy	6h 15m	67%	56%
Delta Details →	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	48m Atlanta	ATL 20:52 → SAT 22:19DL 1222	8h 20m	60%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON