tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 610 at 15:59, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 610 Alaska SEA 15:59 SBA 18:23 22% 4% 0.9% no record
AS 2142 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SEA 07:40 SBA 10:14 16% 0% 0.0% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 20m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 6h 29m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016 2h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest 6h 33m 99% 90%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 06:42 → PDX 07:37AS 2432 · flown by Horizon 3h 10m Portland PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon 6h 23m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 2h 43m Denver DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671 8h 02m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:19 → SFO 09:50UA 499 4h 00m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17UA 5464 · flown by SkyWest 7h 58m 99% 68%
AlaskaDetails → SEA 07:40 → SAN 10:19AS 1367 2h 30m San Diego SAN 12:49 → SBA 14:02AS 2177 · flown by Horizon 6h 22m 97% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SEA 06:16 → PHX 09:18AA 3792 · flown by Envoy 48m Phoenix PHX 10:06 → SBA 11:56AA 2928 5h 40m 72% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON