Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 3707 at 14:30 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 3707 SEA 14:30 → SFO 16:49 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AS 688 SEA 10:46 → SFO 12:48 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3707 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:30	SFO 16:49	20%	10%	0.7%	71%
OO 5841 SkyWest	SEA 17:38	SFO 20:16	20%	11%	0.7%	no record
DL 1053 Delta	SEA 07:17	SFO 09:26	26%	8%	0.8%	no record
AS 1385 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:36	SFO 18:48	27%	9%	0.8%	71%
AS 725 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:03	SFO 09:20	27%	8%	0.9%	52%
UA 2478 United	SEA 15:25	SFO 17:35	27%	12%	0.6%	no record
UA 499 United Flight history →	SEA 07:19	SFO 09:50	28%	9%	0.7%	49%
AS 655 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:42	SFO 14:04	28%	9%	0.8%	70%
DL 1412 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:45	SFO 12:04	29%	10%	0.7%	64%
UA 2281 United	SEA 13:18	SFO 15:29	31%	12%	0.6%	no record
OO 5660 SkyWest	SEA 10:48	SFO 13:01	33%	12%	0.7%	no record
UA 2831 United Flight history →	SEA 08:45	SFO 11:03	34%	11%	0.7%	33%
AS 680 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:20	SFO 15:31	39%	13%	0.8%	69%
AS 528 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:53	SFO 11:09	40%	13%	0.8%	54%
AS 688 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:46	SFO 12:48	41%	12%	0.8%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON