Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3451 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3451 SEA 07:16 → SJC 09:29 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 658 SEA 10:53 → SJC 12:58 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3451 Southwest	SEA 07:16	SJC 09:29	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3736 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:30	SJC 10:55	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 3897 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:45	SJC 17:05	11%	3%	0.6%	85%
AS 1341 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:04	SJC 09:09	14%	3%	0.8%	92%
OO 168 SkyWest	SEA 11:58	SJC 14:15	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 521 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 16:32	SJC 18:36	23%	5%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
WN 3766 Southwest	SEA 12:26	SJC 14:38	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 657 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 13:39	SJC 15:44	26%	4%	0.7%	77%
AS 658 Alaska	SEA 10:53	SJC 12:58	26%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON