Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1128 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 1128 SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 733 SEA 11:51 → SLC 15:04 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1128 Delta Flight history →	SEA 05:30	SLC 08:30	4%	2%	0.4%	94%
DL 2858 Delta Flight history →	SEA 07:15	SLC 10:26	11%	2%	0.5%	96%
DL 1016 Delta Flight history →	SEA 09:30	SLC 12:36	14%	3%	0.4%	90%
DL 1265 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:09	SLC 14:15	18%	3%	0.4%	86%
DL 1120 Delta Flight history →	SEA 13:30	SLC 16:40	18%	4%	0.4%	83%
DL 1165 Delta Flight history →	SEA 17:59	SLC 21:06	18%	4%	0.4%	81%
OO 3282 SkyWest	SEA 14:18	SLC 17:25	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 661 Alaska	SEA 09:08	SLC 12:03	26%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 733 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:51	SLC 15:04	34%	4%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON