Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3768 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 3768 SEA 05:31 → SMF 07:27 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 288 SEA 11:53 → SMF 13:41 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3768 Southwest	SEA 05:31	SMF 07:27	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 4125 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 10:10	SMF 12:17	11%	4%	0.5%	91%
DL 4153 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 14:40	SMF 16:39	12%	5%	0.5%	88%
DL 4043 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 17:00	SMF 18:57	13%	4%	0.5%	89%
OO 164 SkyWest	SEA 09:00	SMF 11:00	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 1461 Alaska	SEA 07:14	SMF 09:02	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 763 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:53	SMF 11:42	22%	4%	0.6%	75%
WN 3770 Southwest	SEA 15:56	SMF 17:51	25%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 3392 Southwest	SEA 11:36	SMF 13:31	26%	5%	0.5%	no record
AS 681 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 17:02	SMF 18:50	27%	6%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
AS 288 Alaska	SEA 11:53	SMF 13:41	32%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON