Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AS 699 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day AS 699 SEA 06:40 → SNA 09:26 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1001 SEA 10:13 → SNA 12:58 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 699 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 06:40	SNA 09:26	7%	1%	0.7%	92%
AS 773 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 14:02	SNA 16:54	18%	3%	0.7%	87%
AS 687 Alaska	SEA 17:22	SNA 19:58	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 759 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 08:18	SNA 11:15	19%	3%	0.7%	86%
AS 1475 Alaska	SEA 15:24	SNA 18:00	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 1357 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 11:06	SNA 13:55	21%	4%	0.7%	85%
OO 3697 SkyWest	SEA 14:34	SNA 17:22	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 3694 SkyWest	SEA 08:26	SNA 11:15	25%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 1001 Delta	SEA 10:13	SNA 12:58	26%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON