Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 388 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 07:58	STL 13:42	19%	3%	0.5%	86%
AS 672 Alaska	SEA 12:38	STL 18:24	24%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:35DL 953	3h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → STL 10:42DL 1289	8h 22m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:17DL 652	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → STL 10:58DL 1400	8h 32m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455	6h 03m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	3h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 15:11 → STL 16:49DL 1224	8h 44m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	2h 56m Detroit	DTW 20:00 → STL 20:37DL 1541	8h 52m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393	9h 53m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:01 → ATL 17:02DL 560	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 19:16 → STL 20:04DL 2833	9h 03m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:13 → DTW 13:21DL 812	3h 24m Detroit	DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822	9h 11m	99%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SEA 08:04 → DFW 14:00AA 1667	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:46 → STL 16:38AA 3944 · flown by Envoy	6h 34m	69%	57%
United Details →	SEA 09:15 → SFO 11:44UA 2831	1h 01m San Francisco	SFO 12:45 → STL 18:56UA 1905	7h 41m	73%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON