Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Tampa on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 358 Delta Flight history →	SEA 11:45	TPA 20:19	24%	6%	0.5%	79%
AS 326 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 09:14	TPA 17:25	26%	4%	0.7%	85%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 00:20 → MSP 05:36DL 953	1h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 07:15 → TPA 11:26DL 2301	8h 06m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	8h 03m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:05 → MSP 11:24DL 943	1h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 13:19 → TPA 17:32DL 2264	8h 27m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	2h 55m Detroit	DTW 19:59 → TPA 22:35DL 1355	9h 50m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → TPA 17:59DL 1425	8h 59m	100%	81%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	57m Denver	DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010	7h 14m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → DTW 12:42DL 812	1h 25m Detroit	DTW 14:07 → TPA 16:45DL 1243	8h 15m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:01 → ATL 17:03DL 560	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 19:58 → TPA 21:30DL 3135	9h 29m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON