tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2217 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SEA 11:52 TUL 17:32 25% 8% 0.0% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:26 → ATL 08:18DL 652 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 9h 30m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 21m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 5h 59m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SEA 06:00 → ATL 13:53DL 569 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 10h 04m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → SEA 07:10 → CLT 15:22AA 854 3h 03m Charlotte CLT 18:25 → TUL 19:58AA 2662 10h 48m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → SEA 10:22 → DFW 16:30AA 707 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → TUL 19:48AA 3715 · flown by Envoy 7h 26m 91% 76%
AmericanDetails → SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748 3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:10 → TUL 15:30AA 2851 8h 25m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135 1h 04m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 10m 89% 73%
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:00 → ORD 13:15UA 2618 2h 20m Chicago ORD 15:35 → TUL 17:42UA 4482 · flown by GoJet 8h 42m 94% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON