Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3680 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SEA 08:25	TUS 11:47	14%	5%	0.6%	94%
AS 648 Alaska Flight history →	SEA 10:19	TUS 13:31	23%	3%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → TUS 10:24DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest	4h 54m	96%	91%
Delta Details →	SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016	2h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest	6h 36m	99%	90%
United Details →	SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601	2h 47m Denver	DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188	7h 32m	99%	83%
American Details →	SEA 11:27 → PHX 14:37AA 4117 · flown by Envoy	2h 25m Phoenix	PHX 17:02 → TUS 18:01AA 6518 · flown by SkyWest	6h 34m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769	1h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest	5h 45m	93%	77%
American Details →	SEA 05:05 → DFW 11:02AA 2748	1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:11 → TUS 12:26AA 2926	7h 21m	96%	73%
American Details →	SEA 07:26 → DFW 13:20AA 1667	1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:46 → TUS 15:01AA 584	7h 35m	91%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON