Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4979 at 06:36 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4979 FLL 06:36 → MDW 08:57 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2106 MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4979 Southwest	FLL 06:36	MDW 08:57	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3039 Southwest	MIA 06:41	MDW 09:01	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 2809 United	FLL 07:00	ORD 09:30	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 581 American Flight history →	MIA 06:40	ORD 09:08	7%	3%	1.1%	87%
AA 1464 American	MIA 05:24	ORD 07:53	10%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 2738 American	FLL 08:43	ORD 11:07	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 3076 American	MIA 08:23	ORD 10:55	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 1755 United Flight history →	FLL 12:26	ORD 14:55	17%	6%	0.7%	87%
WN 1927 Southwest	FLL 12:56	MDW 15:20	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 651 United Flight history →	FLL 19:37	ORD 22:20	20%	8%	0.7%	66%
UA 1983 United Flight history →	MIA 12:30	ORD 15:13	21%	8%	0.8%	82%
AA 835 American	MIA 13:04	ORD 15:38	21%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 1443 American Flight history →	FLL 13:25	ORD 16:00	23%	9%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
F9 2206 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 12:13	ORD 14:50	24%	10%	1.5%	69%
UA 403 United Flight history →	FLL 16:20	ORD 19:00	24%	8%	0.8%	52%
AA 2194 American Flight history →	MIA 19:09	ORD 21:46	28%	11%	1.0%	62%
B6 663 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	ORD 13:39	28%	10%	2.0%	71%
WN 1928 Southwest	FLL 18:26	MDW 20:47	29%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 3056 American Flight history →	MIA 17:00	ORD 19:53	30%	12%	1.2%	60%
AA 3304 American Flight history →	MIA 16:53	ORD 19:27	30%	12%	1.2%	49%
UA 2106 United Flight history →	MIA 16:10	ORD 18:53	30%	12%	0.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON