Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2705 at 05:21 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2705 FLL 05:21 → HOU 07:01 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4837 FLL 20:06 → HOU 21:45 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2705 Southwest	FLL 05:21	HOU 07:01	4%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 2314 United Flight history →	FLL 07:00	IAH 08:45	6%	3%	0.7%	97%
WN 3109 Southwest	MIA 05:21	HOU 07:00	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 722 United Flight history →	FLL 09:00	IAH 10:45	9%	4%	0.8%	90%
UA 699 United Flight history →	FLL 11:23	IAH 13:29	10%	4%	0.7%	96%
UA 2417 United Flight history →	MIA 08:48	IAH 10:42	11%	5%	0.7%	85%
UA 2162 United Flight history →	FLL 13:10	IAH 15:00	11%	5%	0.7%	84%
AA 1347 American	MIA 08:18	IAH 10:13	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
B6 2179 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 07:59	IAH 09:45	16%	5%	0.9%	81%
UA 1696 United Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAH 18:56	16%	6%	0.7%	79%
UA 1338 United Flight history →	FLL 18:31	IAH 20:19	18%	6%	0.8%	81%
UA 470 United Flight history →	MIA 12:29	IAH 14:23	18%	7%	0.7%	87%
F9 1067 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 11:23	IAH 13:15	21%	7%	1.1%	85%
UA 1216 United Flight history →	MIA 16:53	IAH 18:56	22%	9%	0.8%	74%
MQ 3358 Envoy	MIA 15:33	IAH 17:09	24%	6%	0.8%	no record
B6 2379 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:45	IAH 15:47	25%	12%	0.9%	73%
AA 678 American Flight history →	MIA 14:22	IAH 16:17	25%	10%	0.7%	61%
B6 2779 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:00	IAH 23:02	28%	14%	1.3%	45%
F9 1495 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 12:56	IAH 14:50	30%	9%	1.1%	49%
AA 2230 American Flight history →	MIA 20:11	IAH 21:59	31%	13%	1.3%	70%
WN 4837 Southwest	FLL 20:06	HOU 21:45	33%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON