Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 800 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 800 FLL 07:53 → LAX 10:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 996 MIA 15:46 → LAX 18:23 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 800 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:53	LAX 10:05	9%	2%	0.7%	88%
B6 1301 JetBlue	FLL 07:00	LAX 09:39	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 713 American Flight history →	MIA 07:07	LAX 09:34	13%	4%	0.8%	89%
DL 573 Delta	FLL 17:37	LAX 20:12	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 960 American Flight history →	MIA 08:39	LAX 11:18	16%	4%	0.8%	93%
AA 3288 American Flight history →	MIA 09:55	LAX 12:24	17%	4%	0.8%	86%
B6 2801 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:15	LAX 11:33	17%	5%	0.8%	82%
B6 101 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 15:52	LAX 18:28	23%	10%	0.8%	72%
DL 450 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:17	LAX 21:49	23%	8%	0.8%	84%
AA 3014 American Flight history →	MIA 13:37	LAX 16:14	24%	10%	0.7%	73%
B6 2501 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 21:35	LAX 23:58	27%	12%	1.0%	71%
AA 996 American	MIA 15:46	LAX 18:23	28%	12%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 38m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 25m	97%	85%
United Details →	FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314	1h 08m Houston	IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469	7h 30m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON