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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 64 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2165 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–49%.

Safest bet that day DL 2165 FLL 07:06 → JFK 10:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 672 FLL 18:36 → LGA 21:35 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

DL 2165 Delta Flight history → FLL 07:06 JFK 10:00 4% 2% 1.0% 90%
AA 525 American Flight history → MIA 06:30 JFK 09:37 6% 2% 1.0% 92%
DL 2428 Delta Flight history → MIA 07:05 JFK 10:03 6% 2% 0.8% 88%
DL 2133 Delta Flight history → FLL 07:00 LGA 09:57 6% 2% 1.1% 94%
B6 302 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 07:01 JFK 10:00 6% 3% 1.1% 95%
UA 2299 United FLL 07:00 EWR 10:02 6% 3% 1.2% no record
UA 1864 United Flight history → MIA 07:07 EWR 10:11 8% 2% 1.1% 93%
DL 2387 Delta Flight history → MIA 06:25 LGA 09:24 9% 3% 1.1% 87%
B6 172 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 06:08 LGA 09:04 11% 4% 1.4% 83%
AA 2341 American Flight history → MIA 08:47 JFK 11:48 11% 3% 0.9% 84%
B6 1002 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 08:28 JFK 11:26 11% 4% 1.0% 72%
UA 408 United Flight history → MIA 08:48 EWR 11:54 12% 4% 1.0% 88%
B6 686 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 07:58 EWR 10:58 12% 5% 1.4% 65%
AA 1801 American Flight history → MIA 08:23 EWR 11:34 12% 4% 1.1% 93%
AA 3205 American Flight history → MIA 06:56 LGA 09:59 13% 3% 1.3% 90%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history → FLL 11:12 JFK 13:59 14% 5% 1.0% 72%
DL 2339 Delta Flight history → MIA 08:15 LGA 11:16 14% 3% 1.0% 76%
UA 2387 United Flight history → FLL 09:58 EWR 13:01 14% 7% 1.1% 83%
UA 210 United Flight history → FLL 11:11 EWR 14:15 16% 11% 1.1% 90%
AA 605 American Flight history → MIA 08:59 LGA 12:13 16% 4% 1.1% 88%
DL 305 Delta Flight history → FLL 15:29 JFK 18:48 17% 8% 1.0% 72%
AA 2062 American MIA 10:22 JFK 13:32 17% 6% 0.9% no record
DL 1419 Delta Flight history → FLL 19:59 JFK 23:05 20% 8% 1.1% 59%
B6 872 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 09:41 LGA 12:49 20% 7% 1.2% 74%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history → FLL 11:29 LGA 14:24 21% 8% 1.1% 70%
DL 1473 Delta MIA 11:31 JFK 14:26 21% 6% 0.8% no record
AA 2424 American MIA 09:58 LGA 13:09 21% 6% 1.1% no record
B6 2102 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:19 JFK 14:13 22% 10% 1.1% 64%
AA 1135 American FLL 12:18 LGA 15:20 23% 10% 1.1% no record
AA 2899 American Flight history → MIA 13:53 JFK 17:03 24% 8% 0.9% 61%
DL 1498 Delta MIA 11:39 LGA 14:35 24% 7% 1.1% no record
DL 1514 Delta Flight history → MIA 15:17 JFK 18:50 24% 8% 0.9% 73%
UA 1611 United Flight history → FLL 12:46 EWR 15:50 24% 12% 1.0% 78%
AA 2124 American MIA 16:20 JFK 19:28 25% 11% 1.0% no record
UA 2433 United Flight history → MIA 11:25 EWR 14:31 26% 9% 0.9% 94%worse than usual
AA 2484 American MIA 12:32 LGA 15:38 28% 10% 1.1% no record
DL 2321 Delta Flight history → FLL 19:34 LGA 22:30 28% 11% 1.3% 62%
UA 460 United FLL 14:43 EWR 17:53 28% 14% 1.0% no record
UA 279 United Flight history → FLL 17:24 EWR 20:35 28% 13% 1.1% 69%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history → FLL 15:05 LGA 18:19 30% 10% 1.0% 68%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history → MIA 15:29 LGA 18:45 30% 10% 1.1% 72%
UA 2029 United Flight history → MIA 20:40 EWR 23:59 30% 10% 1.3% 72%
AA 1357 American Flight history → MIA 19:50 JFK 23:01 30% 10% 1.1% 56%
DL 1794 Delta MIA 19:50 JFK 22:46 30% 9% 1.0% no record
DL 2300 Delta Flight history → MIA 19:40 LGA 22:59 31% 11% 1.3% 57%
AA 2600 American MIA 18:37 JFK 21:49 32% 11% 1.2% no record
B6 272 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 11:52 LGA 14:45 32% 13% 1.1% 58%
UA 1102 United MIA 13:30 EWR 16:41 33% 13% 1.0% no record
AA 1389 American Flight history → MIA 20:40 LGA 23:44 33% 11% 1.9% 58%
UA 1800 United Flight history → FLL 15:53 EWR 19:00 34% 17% 1.0% 61%
B6 706 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:55 EWR 23:58 34% 19% 1.4% 51%
AA 2262 American MIA 19:54 LGA 23:01 34% 11% 1.3% no record
B6 2702 JetBlue FLL 18:37 JFK 21:34 35% 14% 1.1% no record
AA 897 American MIA 15:30 LGA 18:39 35% 13% 1.1% no record
AA 2933 American Flight history → MIA 14:26 EWR 17:38 36% 15% 0.9% 62%
AA 2968 American FLL 17:24 LGA 20:25 38% 12% 1.2% no record
AA 552 American MIA 14:31 LGA 17:37 38% 12% 1.1% no record
AA 2172 American MIA 16:31 LGA 19:40 39% 14% 1.1% no record
AA 2271 American Flight history → MIA 18:13 LGA 21:21 40% 14% 1.4% 57%
B6 572 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:15 LGA 23:14 42% 17% 1.4% 55%
AA 322 American Flight history → MIA 19:48 EWR 22:53 42% 15% 1.3% 46%
B6 106 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 18:40 EWR 21:43 43% 23% 1.3% 57%
B6 472 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 16:51 LGA 19:50 47% 17% 1.2% 74%worse than usual
B6 672 JetBlue FLL 18:36 LGA 21:35 49% 19% 1.5% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON