Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 31 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3136 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 3136 FLL 06:01 → BWI 08:44 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2994 FLL 20:59 → BWI 23:27 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3136 Southwest	FLL 06:01	BWI 08:44	3%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 4703 Southwest	MIA 06:26	BWI 09:10	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
AA 491 American Flight history →	MIA 06:00	DCA 08:41	7%	3%	0.9%	93%
WN 1910 Southwest	FLL 09:01	BWI 11:45	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
B6 1480 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:30	DCA 09:04	8%	3%	1.0%	92%
UA 1421 United Flight history →	FLL 12:13	IAD 14:49	10%	4%	0.7%	89%
AA 2848 American	MIA 08:12	DCA 11:00	10%	4%	1.0%	no record
F9 2940 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 07:26	BWI 10:29	12%	5%	1.2%	71%
AA 1612 American Flight history →	MIA 09:58	DCA 12:43	15%	5%	0.9%	85%
UA 2435 United Flight history →	MIA 13:10	IAD 15:53	16%	5%	0.7%	88%
AA 1893 American Flight history →	FLL 11:23	DCA 14:00	16%	7%	0.9%	86%
WN 449 Southwest	MIA 12:31	BWI 15:22	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 1136 Southwest	FLL 15:00	BWI 17:48	19%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 2888 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:22	DCA 14:05	21%	6%	0.7%	70%
WN 1916 Southwest	FLL 12:31	DCA 15:09	21%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 1028 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 10:25	BWI 13:26	21%	7%	1.4%	72%
AA 861 American	MIA 14:02	DCA 16:53	22%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 1816 Southwest	FLL 19:05	BWI 21:56	22%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 1595 American	MIA 12:06	DCA 14:51	23%	11%	0.8%	no record
B6 1680 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:42	DCA 14:15	23%	11%	0.9%	69%
AA 2104 American	MIA 15:50	BWI 18:39	23%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 3034 American Flight history →	MIA 15:28	DCA 18:13	25%	12%	0.9%	58%
AA 3216 American Flight history →	MIA 21:12	BWI 23:52	26%	10%	1.1%	57%
AA 2897 American Flight history →	MIA 20:30	DCA 23:09	27%	12%	1.4%	74%
B6 2080 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	DCA 23:33	29%	16%	1.4%	57%
AA 2648 American Flight history →	MIA 19:05	DCA 21:48	30%	14%	1.0%	63%
B6 2094 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:30	BWI 14:58	31%	11%	1.1%	52%
F9 2960 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAD 19:38	31%	12%	1.4%	54%
B6 1880 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:47	DCA 21:25	34%	17%	1.1%	61%
AA 667 American Flight history →	MIA 18:25	DCA 20:59	36%	14%	1.1%	51%
B6 2994 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	BWI 23:27	38%	15%	1.4%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON