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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 1597 at 12:05, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1597 United SFO 12:05 ABQ 15:40 23% 8% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:15 → ABQ 12:46UA 476 6h 46m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 56m Phoenix PHX 08:57 → ABQ 11:22AA 1352 4h 32m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 09m Houston IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa 7h 27m 97% 84%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620 1h 37m Seattle SEA 09:50 → ABQ 13:53AS 327 6h 50m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → SFO 06:45 → DFW 12:29AA 2305 1h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:22 → ABQ 15:19AA 3053 7h 34m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → SFO 13:25 → SLC 16:15DL 902 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → ABQ 19:12DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 4h 47m 79% 71%
AmericanDetails → SFO 07:48 → DFW 13:35AA 304 2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:01 → ABQ 16:58AA 9 8h 10m 96% 69%
AmericanDetails → SFO 11:24 → DFW 17:14AA 1849 1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:23 → ABQ 19:20AA 2698 6h 56m 78% 52%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SFO 07:48 → DFW 13:35AA 304 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:22 → ABQ 15:19AA 3053 6h 31m 72% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON