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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Portland, leaving 07:20, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 43% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410 1h 28m Portland PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22AS 775 7h 02m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05DL 2721 2h 30m Seattle SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922 8h 22m 98% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620 3h 58m Seattle SEA 12:11 → ANC 14:57AS 1434 9h 54m 100% 73%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27AS 656 3h 31m Seattle SEA 15:58 → ANC 18:37AS 99 9h 19m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → SFO 13:30 → SEA 15:47DL 1412 1h 44m Seattle SEA 17:31 → ANC 20:26DL 2367 7h 56m 89% 71%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 09:00 → SEA 11:15AS 1327 2h 06m Seattle SEA 13:21 → ANC 16:08AS 1440 8h 08m 94% 68%
AmericanDetails → SFO 07:48 → DFW 13:35AA 304 1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:09 → ANC 19:27AA 399 12h 39m 96% 68%
UnitedDetails → SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568 1h 15m Chicago ORD 16:05 → ANC 19:48UA 461 12h 33m 91% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 13:45 → SEA 15:47AS 68 1h 12m Seattle SEA 16:59 → ANC 19:38AS 225 6h 53m 70% 53%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 09:00 → SEA 11:15AS 1327 56m Seattle SEA 12:11 → ANC 14:57AS 1434 6h 57m 67% 49%
AlaskaDetails → SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27AS 656 54m Seattle SEA 13:21 → ANC 16:08AS 1440 6h 50m 43% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON