Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 5711 at 16:25, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5711 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:25	ASE 19:55	19%	9%	1.2%	55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SFO 12:15 → LAX 13:55UA 1506	3h 59m Los Angeles	LAX 17:54 → ASE 21:22UA 5786 · flown by SkyWest	8h 07m	99%	88%
United Details →	SFO 10:40 → DEN 14:23UA 1604	3h 02m Denver	DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	99%	83%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	2h 43m Denver	DEN 11:18 → ASE 12:26UA 5769 · flown by SkyWest	6h 26m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540	50m Denver	DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest	4h 46m	61%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON