Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 570 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 570 SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 531 SFO 14:00 → ATL 21:49 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 570 Delta Flight history →	SFO 06:00	ATL 13:44	5%	1%	0.4%	93%
DL 640 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:50	ATL 15:32	7%	2%	0.4%	90%
DL 750 Delta Flight history →	SFO 16:11	ATL 00:08	15%	5%	0.4%	80%
UA 702 United Flight history →	SFO 10:51	ATL 18:54	18%	6%	0.5%	86%
DL 693 Delta Flight history →	SFO 11:38	ATL 19:27	19%	5%	0.4%	83%
DL 531 Delta Flight history →	SFO 14:00	ATL 21:49	19%	6%	0.4%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	6h 49m	98%	88%
American Details →	SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest	55m Phoenix	PHX 08:56 → ATL 15:44AA 883	6h 54m	94%	77%
United Details →	SFO 00:45 → IAH 06:34UA 604	46m Houston	IAH 07:20 → ATL 10:39UA 1030	6h 54m	82%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON