Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 400 at 00:09 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 400 SFO 00:09 → AUS 05:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 335 SFO 13:56 → AUS 19:34 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 400 United	SFO 00:09	AUS 05:48	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1107 United Flight history →	SFO 08:29	AUS 14:03	11%	3%	0.6%	98%
DL 381 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:49	AUS 15:36	17%	5%	0.7%	69%
UA 1116 United Flight history →	SFO 13:20	AUS 19:05	22%	9%	0.6%	81%
UA 2150 United	SFO 16:19	AUS 21:53	24%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 2432 United	SFO 11:06	AUS 16:56	25%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 3288 Southwest	SFO 10:32	AUS 16:10	31%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 335 Southwest	SFO 13:56	AUS 19:34	31%	9%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON