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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1815 at 00:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1815 SFO 00:09 → BNA 06:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest UA 433 SFO 14:33 → BNA 21:09 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 1815 United Flight history → SFO 00:09 BNA 06:27 7% 2% 0.6% 77%
UA 499 United Flight history → SFO 11:30 BNA 18:06 25% 7% 0.5% 84%
UA 433 United SFO 14:33 BNA 21:09 26% 9% 0.6% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 16m Denver DEN 09:51 → BNA 13:41UA 355 6h 41m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789 51m Minneapolis MSP 06:55 → BNA 08:58DL 2724 6h 36m 91% 86%
DeltaDetails → SFO 09:55 → SLC 12:44DL 920 1h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → BNA 18:13DL 2205 6h 18m 87% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON