Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 400 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 400 SFO 07:10 → BOS 15:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 1234 SFO 14:34 → BOS 23:24 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 400 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:10	BOS 15:55	8%	4%	0.7%	89%
UA 371 United	SFO 07:00	BOS 15:47	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
B6 434 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 07:45	BOS 16:36	13%	6%	1.0%	86%
UA 2647 United Flight history →	SFO 08:10	BOS 17:04	16%	5%	0.7%	82%
DL 860 Delta Flight history →	SFO 15:00	BOS 23:41	24%	10%	0.7%	37%
UA 1372 United Flight history →	SFO 12:25	BOS 21:21	26%	11%	0.6%	79%
UA 2356 United Flight history →	SFO 10:05	BOS 18:59	28%	11%	0.6%	63%
UA 2634 United	SFO 14:05	BOS 22:50	29%	12%	0.7%	no record
DL 977 Delta Flight history →	SFO 12:20	BOS 21:02	30%	11%	0.6%	60%
B6 1034 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 11:20	BOS 20:11	30%	15%	0.9%	54%
B6 1734 JetBlue Flight history →	SFO 10:25	BOS 19:12	31%	14%	0.9%	70%
B6 1234 JetBlue	SFO 14:34	BOS 23:24	32%	16%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789	56m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:45DL 2649	7h 23m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	7h 46m	98%	81%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 05m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	7h 44m	96%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON