Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1756 at 07:23 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1756 SFO 07:23 → BUR 09:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 4312 SFO 14:01 → BUR 15:28 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1756 United Flight history →	SFO 07:23	BUR 09:02	6%	3%	0.6%	97%
UA 2363 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	BUR 09:57	9%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 2001 United	SFO 18:05	BUR 19:34	13%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 2115 United Flight history →	SFO 10:23	BUR 11:49	23%	7%	0.6%	81%
UA 626 United Flight history →	SFO 13:50	BUR 15:17	25%	9%	0.6%	69%
UA 2764 United Flight history →	SFO 16:15	BUR 17:42	26%	10%	0.6%	56%
WN 4311 Southwest	SFO 10:42	BUR 12:09	29%	8%	6.1%	no record
WN 4312 Southwest	SFO 14:01	BUR 15:28	35%	10%	4.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON