tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:22, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2664 United Flight history → SFO 09:33 BWI 17:57 9% 3% 0.6% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:08UA 505 1h 32m Houston IAH 07:40 → BWI 11:47UA 604 8h 42m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → BWI 10:42DL 2357 7h 20m 95% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 3h 05m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 9h 15m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09DL 772 1h 56m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 8h 01m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 11m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 17m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 21m Houston IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720 8h 30m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SFO 07:50 → ATL 15:32DL 640 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → BWI 20:04DL 2928 9h 14m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 1h 54m Los Angeles LAX 09:33 → BWI 17:43UA 1093 8h 43m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620 50m Seattle SEA 09:03 → BWI 17:04AS 378 8h 01m 71% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON