Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 562 at 12:00, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 562 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	BZN 15:21	24%	7%	0.5%	65%
AS 2062 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 13:56	BZN 17:11	69%	24%	3.8%	31%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971	4h 27m	98%	91%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	3h 20m Denver	DEN 11:55 → BZN 13:55UA 741	7h 55m	98%	89%
Alaska Details →	SFO 07:20 → PDX 09:02AS 1410	1h 31m Portland	PDX 10:33 → BZN 13:12AS 393	4h 52m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05DL 2721	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 11:40 → BZN 14:35DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	7h 40m	99%	84%
Alaska Details →	SFO 06:03 → SEA 08:13AS 620	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 11:48 → BZN 14:24AS 277	7h 21m	100%	78%
American Details →	SFO 11:24 → DFW 17:14AA 1849	1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:30 → BZN 20:39AA 1774	8h 15m	81%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SFO 13:25 → SLC 16:15DL 902	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	4h 19m	73%	66%
United Details →	SFO 10:22 → LAX 11:52UA 1164	58m Los Angeles	LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212	5h 02m	70%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON