tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:22, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2603 United SFO 10:31 CLE 18:19 24% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789 1h 07m Minneapolis MSP 07:11 → CLE 10:09DL 1083 6h 47m 95% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:06 → MCO 08:37UA 1947 2h 58m Orlando MCO 11:35 → CLE 14:06UA 486 11h 00m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:05 → IAH 06:08UA 505 1h 12m Houston IAH 07:20 → CLE 11:14UA 544 8h 09m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:15 → LAX 13:55UA 1506 2h 30m Los Angeles LAX 16:25 → CLE 00:10 +1UA 2756 8h 55m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 05m Denver DEN 09:40 → CLE 14:36UA 619 6h 36m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 53m Los Angeles LAX 08:32 → CLE 16:16UA 2315 7h 16m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 3h 40m Houston IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934 10h 30m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:42DL 1350 9h 42m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 13:55 → LAX 15:35UA 2610 50m Los Angeles LAX 16:25 → CLE 00:10 +1UA 2756 7h 15m 71% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON