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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3082 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 3082 SFO 05:00 → CLT 13:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 1023 SFO 12:08 → CLT 20:22 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 3082 American Flight history → SFO 05:00 CLT 13:15 6% 2% 0.7% 98%
AA 1960 American Flight history → SFO 08:15 CLT 16:36 15% 4% 0.7% 85%
AA 1023 American SFO 12:08 CLT 20:22 23% 8% 0.7% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 07:12 → CLT 10:39DL 1912 7h 17m 95% 88%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 16m Denver DEN 09:51 → CLT 15:18UA 2231 7h 18m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031 7h 17m 97% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON