tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:22, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Columbus on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1329 United SFO 08:32 CMH 16:26 14% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → CMH 10:02DL 2772 6h 40m 95% 89%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178 3h 59m Minneapolis MSP 15:35 → CMH 18:28DL 2113 9h 28m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → SFO 06:00 → ATL 13:44DL 570 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786 10h 03m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → IAH 10:55UA 2168 1h 20m Houston IAH 12:15 → CMH 16:05UA 4072 · flown by Mesa 8h 05m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:35 → CMH 14:28UA 480 6h 28m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → SFO 00:01 → EWR 08:39UA 2416 1h 59m Newark EWR 10:38 → CMH 12:33UA 3638 · flown by Republic 9h 32m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → SFO 05:50 → PHX 08:01AA 6404 · flown by SkyWest 1h 13m Phoenix PHX 09:14 → CMH 16:14AA 2900 7h 24m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SFO 06:00 → LAX 07:39UA 2127 2h 52m Los Angeles LAX 10:31 → CMH 18:45UA 2251 9h 45m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317 1h 10m Chicago ORD 19:45 → CMH 22:24UA 3614 · flown by Republic 7h 24m 70% 62%
UnitedDetails → SFO 13:15 → IAD 21:25UA 1791 50m Dulles IAD 22:15 → CMH 23:42UA 4414 · flown by GoJet 7h 27m 67% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON