Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1678 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 1678 SFO 08:20 → DCA 16:47 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 2386 SFO 14:18 → DCA 22:30 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1678 United Flight history →	SFO 08:20	DCA 16:47	13%	4%	0.6%	90%
AS 8 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:39	DCA 17:59	16%	6%	0.7%	78%
UA 2386 United Flight history →	SFO 14:18	DCA 22:30	24%	10%	0.6%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:22 → MSP 06:04DL 2789	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 07:36 → DCA 11:00DL 2958	7h 38m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820	7h 45m	98%	82%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	55m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	6h 59m	95%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON