Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3774 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 3774 SFO 06:01 → DEN 09:39 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 137 SFO 14:20 → DEN 17:56 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3774 Southwest	SFO 06:01	DEN 09:39	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1479 United Flight history →	SFO 05:00	DEN 08:35	5%	1%	0.6%	96%
UA 2448 United	SFO 06:14	DEN 10:00	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 1230 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 06:00	DEN 09:46	11%	3%	0.7%	88%
UA 1469 United	SFO 08:57	DEN 12:53	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4619 Southwest	SFO 09:36	DEN 13:13	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 4310 Frontier	SFO 09:42	DEN 13:31	17%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 540 United Flight history →	SFO 12:43	DEN 16:35	23%	6%	0.5%	77%
UA 1835 United	SFO 16:26	DEN 20:08	24%	7%	0.5%	no record
UA 1604 United Flight history →	SFO 10:40	DEN 14:23	26%	5%	0.6%	68%
WN 3776 Southwest	SFO 11:46	DEN 15:22	32%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1596 United Flight history →	SFO 14:20	DEN 18:11	33%	8%	0.5%	71%
F9 1094 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 11:42	DEN 15:29	34%	13%	0.7%	43%
WN 137 Southwest	SFO 14:20	DEN 17:56	38%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON