Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 772 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 772 SFO 05:40 → DTW 13:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 805 SFO 14:26 → DTW 22:03 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 772 Delta Flight history →	SFO 05:40	DTW 13:09	5%	1%	0.4%	93%
UA 1286 United	SFO 10:41	DTW 18:15	21%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 2057 Delta	SFO 11:47	DTW 19:23	23%	6%	0.4%	no record
DL 805 Delta	SFO 14:26	DTW 22:03	26%	7%	0.4%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 06:00 → MSP 11:36DL 2178	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → DTW 15:39DL 1519	6h 39m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:45 → DTW 15:12DL 2236	6h 22m	97%	88%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 00m Denver	DEN 09:35 → DTW 14:27UA 1915	6h 27m	95%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON